Macro Forecast and Review Ledger

This page is an append-only forecast contract. Published event definitions, probabilities, and deadlines are never overwritten. Resolution status, scores, revisions, and reviews are appended. The reasoning remains in the corresponding time slice.

Status Rules

• open: the resolution date has not arrived;
• true: the event occurred under the pre-specified source;
• false: the event did not occur;
• void: the series ceased, its definition changed materially, or the original rule cannot resolve it;
• revised: first-release and revised data imply different outcomes, with both scores retained.

By default, resolution uses the first official release available by the resolution date, followed by a revision check 90 days later. Policy rates use the official target effective at the close of the specified date, not market expectations.

Open Forecasts

ID	T0	Resolution/check date	Event and definition	p	Source	Status	y	Brier
M-202608-01	2026-08-09	2026-10-31	NBS first release of Q3 2026 real GDP growth ≥ 4.0% year over year	0.70	NBS GDP release	open	—	—
M-202608-02	2026-08-09	2026-11-01	At least two NBS manufacturing PMIs for August, September, and October 2026 < 50.0	0.65	NBS PMI releases	open	—	—
M-202608-03	2026-08-09	2026-12-31	Effective lower bound of the federal-funds target ≥ 3.50%	0.70	Federal Reserve	open	—	—
M-202608-04	2026-08-09	2026-12-31	Effective Bank of Canada overnight target ≤ 2.25%	0.70	Bank of Canada	open	—	—
M-202608-05	2026-08-09	2026-12-31	Fed target midpoint minus Bank of Canada overnight target ≥ 125bp	0.65	Fed + Bank of Canada	open	—	—

After resolution, a binary forecast receives $(p-y)^2$. If a 70% event fails, its Brier score is $(0.70-0)^2=0.49$; if it occurs, the score is $(0.70-1)^2=0.09$.

Review Log

2026-08-10 — Ledger Opened

• Registered five forecasts from the 2026-08-09 baseline.
• All remain open; no unreleased data were used to settle them early.
• The first leading check is scheduled for 2026-09-09. China's Q3 GDP is expected to be the first resolvable event.
• There are zero settled observations, so no mean score or calibration conclusion is reported.

2026-09-12 — Late Leading-Signal Check

The September-9 leading check is recorded here on September 12. NBS’s September-1 release put August manufacturing PMI at 49.8, up 0.6 points from July. This supplies one below-50 observation for M-202608-02, not a resolution of the August–October condition. The production and new-order indexes rose above 50, so the improving manufacturing signal should not be treated as an unchanged July reading.

The Bank of Canada held its overnight target at 2.25% on September 2. The Federal Reserve’s July-29 target remained 3.50%–3.75%, with the next scheduled FOMC meeting on September 15–16. Their target-rate gap is therefore 137.5 basis points using the Fed midpoint; that arithmetic is a current observation, not a year-end outcome.

All five forecasts remain open. Original probabilities, event definitions, and deadlines are unchanged; no Brier scores are assigned. This is a limited PMI/policy-rate check, not a complete new macro snapshot.

Every later review appends new data, due status, outcome, score, error class, and any prospective method change. Even a clean sweep requires checking whether the probabilities were merely too conservative.

Calibration Dashboard

Through date	Settled N	Mean Brier	50–60% hit rate	65–75% hit rate	Largest issue
2026-08-10	0	—	—	—	No sample yet

Wait for at least 20 resolved forecasts before judging calibration. Before then, describe individual mistakes rather than presenting short-run luck as a methodological edge.

Resolution Template

### YYYY-MM-DD — <review window>

- `<ID>` → true / false / void / revised
- Resolution source and release date:
- First-release value:
- Revised value, if any:
- Brier score:
- Error type: direction / probability / definition / timing / revision / omitted variable
- What changes in the next slice (never retroactively):

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