8 docs tagged with "macroeconomics"

China, US, and Canada observations, scenario posteriors, and the first scored forecasts using information available through 2026-08-09.

A method for turning macro narratives into priors, likelihoods, posteriors, resolvable forecasts, and calibration scores.

A filing-first checklist for testing whether infrastructure investment is outrunning cash generation and financing capacity.

How to distinguish ordinary vendor finance and long-term contracts from circular exposure that can amplify an AI infrastructure downturn.

Track, infer, and review macro changes across China, the United States, and Canada with frozen time slices, Bayesian updates, and scored forecasts.

Lock original probabilities, resolution rules, outcomes, and calibration scores for China–US–Canada macro forecasts.

A small set of demand, price, utilization, cash-flow, and credit observations that can support or falsify an infrastructure-bubble thesis.

A research map for separating AI infrastructure overbuild, equity valuation, credit risk, and circular-financing hypotheses.