3 docs tagged with "bayesian-forecasting"

A method for turning macro narratives into priors, likelihoods, posteriors, resolvable forecasts, and calibration scores.

Track, infer, and review macro changes across China, the United States, and Canada with frozen time slices, Bayesian updates, and scored forecasts.

Lock original probabilities, resolution rules, outcomes, and calibration scores for China–US–Canada macro forecasts.