A Bayesian Method for Macro Scenarios
A method for turning macro narratives into priors, likelihoods, posteriors, resolvable forecasts, and calibration scores.
A method for turning macro narratives into priors, likelihoods, posteriors, resolvable forecasts, and calibration scores.
A practical way to label specifications, vendor claims, benchmark results, observations, and recommendations without pretending they prove the same thing.